Vice President of China Building Materials Circulation Association Qin Zhanxue
Since the launch of the China Building Materials Circulation Association, BHI has attracted the attention of the industry, the media and related industries, and has become the vane of the building materials and home furnishing industry. The trend of BHI in 2011 reflects the entanglement and development of China's building materials and home furnishing industry (ie, the living materials of building materials), and also laid the groundwork for the 2012 trend.
I. Review of building materials home market in 2011:
China's building materials home market and the rigid demand of real estate are closely related. In 2011, the national real estate development investment was 617.4 billion yuan, an increase of 27.9% over the previous year. The growth rate dropped by 5.3 percentage points over the previous year; the national commercial housing sales area was 1.09 billion square meters; the growth rate was 4.9% higher than the previous year, and the growth rate was lower than that of the previous year. 5.7 percentage points, sales were 591.19 billion yuan, an increase of 12.1%, and the growth rate dropped by 6.8 percentage points from the previous year. In addition, the National Real Estate Development Comprehensive Climate Index (National Housing Climate Index), except for a small high in July 2011, almost fell all the way, with 98.89 in December, the lowest point of the year.
As can be seen from the above data, both real estate investment and commercial housing sales have experienced different degrees of growth, but the growth rate is declining, and its prosperity is also declining. The building materials and home furnishing market in 2011 has kept pace with it, indicating that the real estate demand bubble has been squeezed out of the majority.
Looking at the building materials and home furnishing market, in 2011, there were about 3,500 building materials for home appliances above designated size. The annual sales reached 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.34%, and the growth rate dropped by 5.64 percentage points from the previous year. The highest annual prosperity was 121.29 in May, which was 13.61 points higher than the highest value of the previous year (still in May). The lowest value of this year's prosperity was 81.5 in February, and the comparable March was 98.16. In the same period of the year, it fell by 1.84 points. It is worth mentioning that in January 2010, the BHI was only 85.74, a year-on-year decrease of 15.13%, and the chain fell by 18.9%, which is a big threat.
From the BHI classification index, the “popularity index†as the leading indicator remained stable for most of the year, but it began to decline in November and December. In January 2012, the popularity index of BHI was only 43.92, a decrease of 39.61 from the previous month. Next step. This is not a good sign for 2012. The “Purchasing Power Index†and the “Sales Capability Index†fluctuated during the typical peak season, while the “Employment Rate Index†reflected that the company’s promotion in October for the surprise promotion in September was carried out. .
Overall, the prosperity of the building materials and home furnishing market is not as good as the previous year, but the building materials and home furnishing market has also seen new highlights. First, the large building materials and home furnishing market has accelerated the pace of expansion. For example, Red Star Macalline, Real Home, Jinsheng Group, Jimei Home, Fusenmei and other home furnishing companies have all occupied the site to expand the store, which has seized the market and is also intended to Commercial real estate; Second, large-scale building materials home production enterprises began to test water stores or direct sales stores, thereby strengthening brand building and integrity building; Third, the rise of e-commerce, online sales of building materials and home products, seems to have the power of the stars.
In 2011, the building materials and home furnishing market is also an eventful event. The "sales of fake" incident of Da Vinci furniture is a counter-argument, highlighting the need to strengthen the integrity of the market; there are also disputes between Hongxing Meikai and the real estate merchants, the lack of market order, the merchants are at a loss; more foreign brands Closing the door in mainland China reflects the fact that foreign capital is bearish on China's building materials and home furnishing market; domestic building materials and home store executives are taking the opportunity to change jobs, and the building materials home market is in a state of turbulence and instability throughout the year.
Second, the 2012 building materials home market prospects:
In 2012, the building materials home market was generally a cold year. First of all, the country's efforts to regulate real estate in 2012 will not be relaxed. The inflection point of real estate prices has been looming. Under the expectation of a sharp drop in prices, the rigid demand for real estate is difficult to release. The so-called "buy up and not buy down" Potential buyers will be more on the sidelines, which will greatly affect the amount of renovation of new homes and the purchase of home furnishings. Second, if the stock market continues to oscillate, or even down, it will cause a large number of middle class to feel the wealth shrinking. , in turn, affecting the enthusiasm of its stock real estate (old house) to renovate. This piece is one of the main customers of building materials and home stores; third, although the country still has to start 7 million sets and complete 4 million sets of affordable housing, the decoration of the affordable housing is mainly carried out by the builders, and the materials are also unified procurement. The stores are not their main point of purchase; fourth, due to the rapid expansion in 2011, the competition for building materials and home stores is becoming increasingly fierce. Fighting the price, the merchants' profit is reduced, and the service is made, so that the seller's cost increases. Some merchants even give up the rent in the big-name stores and choose the low-end building materials and home stores with less rent.
Of course, there are also hopes for building materials and home stores in 2012. The first is to change business ideas, transform retail sales to supporting supply, and eat and protect the big cake. Second, strengthen service innovation, introduce decoration design and construction, and stimulate and induce the re-decoration of existing households (old houses). In February 2012, Beijing introduced a policy of replacing old furniture with furniture. It may be a signal that the policy of stimulating domestic demand may be introduced one after another. Third, through mergers and acquisitions and franchises, the company’s ability to resist pressure will be enhanced, and it will also facilitate the warmth of the group. Once the economic situation occurs. If you change, you can break out. Fourth, the country will hold a national circulation work conference and related policies to introduce the Dongfeng, do a good job of integrity building, do a good job in brand promotion, and practice internal strength, but also in an invincible position.
In short, the building materials and home furnishing market in 2012 is a year of oscillation. Hope and difficulties coexist. Who can win the pressure of the immediate future, who will become the winner of 2012.
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