Massive hot money poured into China, the same goods false exports eighty times
A 10 million yuan "export" of goods, 80 times, can contribute 800 million bright export data.
Liu Tao (pseudonym) is a CEO of an electronic export enterprise in Shenzhen. This "deep throat" yesterday unveiled a "dark road" for the export of foreign trade enterprises to the "First Financial Daily" reporter. One of the hidden ways is that domestic enterprises pass Forged exports are eligible for overseas loans, and foreign exchange is drawn. In this way, the "principal" can obtain the difference between interest rate and exchange rate, and can also be used to purchase short-term wealth management products.
This kind of money like a vulture is a kind of hot money commonly known in the industry. In the near term, counterfeit companies can obtain such arbitrage funds by “exporting†Hong Kong.
The anatomy of similar cases can partly explain the reason why the mainland's exports to Hong Kong "sit rockets" in the near future, and it has become a realistic textbook for customs and foreign exchange management departments to strengthen supervision.
Beautiful data
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Wednesday, the import and export data in April were significantly higher than market expectations, with exports up 14.7% year-on-year, up from 10.0% in the previous month. In the first four months, bilateral trade between the mainland and Hong Kong increased by 66%. In March, the mainland’s exports to Hong Kong increased by 92.9%, creating the highest growth rate since March 1995.
In fact, just two days before the Customs announced the April data, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a document calling for severe suspicious operations under the trade. Combined with the continuous arrogance of the renminbi since late April, speculation about hot money borrowing from the current account has become the marketlor's argument.
There are also a number of foreign-funded institutions citing data from South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, China, saying that their import data is not consistent with the export data announced by the customs.
Although the General Administration of Customs has emphasized that there are differences in the mainland's exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong's import statistics from the Mainland, the market believes that this is not enough to fully explain all the reasons for the high data.
Yao Wei, an economist at Societe Generale, said that there are some tricks in the trade data between the mainland and Hong Kong. The main reason is that there is a large-scale speculative capital to enter the mainland through the trade account.
According to the public data of the General Administration of Customs, our reporters' trade between the mainland and Hong Kong increased by 55% in April, while that of other countries and regions increased by 12%. At the same time, the mainland's trade surplus with Hong Kong was US$38.2 billion. The overall surplus for the month was $18.2 billion.
“Some companies we talked to have admitted that they are carrying out some interest rate arbitrage. We estimate that this deviation from trade size growth data (including imports and exports) is about 3-8 percentage points.†Yao Wei in his report Pointed out.
Zhou Binglin, chief analyst of Guosen Securities, said that part of the reason for the deviation between the two sides of the mainland and Hong Kong trade re-export data was that enterprises falsely reported export fraud and tax rebates, as well as false goods flow and funds.
The analysis of economists sitting in the office was confirmed by Liu Tao's real case.
"The same batch of goods, if you go back and forth 80 times through trade forms such as 'Hong Kong One-Day Tour', the export of 10 million yuan of goods will become 800 million yuan." He said that enterprises are inevitably going in and out repeatedly, the purpose may not be In order to swindle export tax rebates, the root cause is that a large amount of funds have entered the mainland through trade channels.
Generally speaking, the purpose of making false exports is to include these types: defrauding export tax rebates; reducing sales tax burdens (to avoid domestic sales tax rates, adopting the “one go†approach to Hong Kong and Macao, and then importing the mainland with almost zero tariffs); Handling "hot money into the arbitrage.
When the trade data in March made the market shine, the newspaper reported that some companies had earned a exchange rate difference of 2 million yuan through the goods in the Shenzhen Free Trade Zone.
"Foreign trade is heating up. It is not that the international economic situation is improving. The biggest pusher is actually driven by 'financial finance'." Liu Tao said.
Operation method
In the entire hot money arbitrage chain, forging huge amounts of trade is the first step. The key step is to obtain foreign exchange funds through “internal insurance loansâ€.
The so-called "internal insurance loans" refers to the guarantee conditions for domestic enterprises to issue credit certificates to domestic banks, and after the banks deposit a certain amount of funds, their overseas subsidiaries can obtain financing from overseas banks. For example, a company deposits 100 million yuan in a mainland bank, and a bank in Hong Kong has a dollar or a Hong Kong dollar.
Liu Tao said that the company's products are sold to themselves, and that the documents with complete trade in goods are in hand. It is not difficult to handle the business of “internal insurance and foreign loansâ€.
Taking Hong Kong as an example, Liu Tao said that the interest rate difference between mainland banks and Hong Kong banks, the introduction of a variety of wealth management products by mainland banks, and the acceleration of the appreciation of the renminbi this year have prompted some people to adjust their overseas funds through trade channels. Go to the territory.
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