Papermaking sector: investing in potential investment opportunities
At present, there are 21 companies engaged in the paper industry in the Shenzhen-Shanghai A-share market. From the perspective of the development of the paper industry in recent years and the increase in economic and social consumption demand, it has maintained a good industry development. For the papermaking sector, the study found that some of these companies, as domestic and regional leaders, have certain advantages in valuation and growth potential. Some varieties of positions show that funds, QFII and other institutions hold heavy positions, which also shows that market institutional investors are optimistic about their potential varieties. From the perspective of the economic policy of this year's national restructuring and consumption promotion, actively explore the investment of potential industries. Opportunities are still available.
Industry growth recovery growth trend is obvious
Judging from the current development of the paper industry, it has clearly shown a good growth trend. According to China Paper Network, in 2009, China's paper industry continued to create impressive results. The annual output of paper and paperboard increased by 12% from 2008 to 93.89 million tons. The China Paper Index also rose along with the recovery of the domestic paper industry, rising from 100 points on January 5, 2009 to 253.91 points on December 31. At present, the region is stable at 260 points. The index has started to rise from 100 at the beginning of the year [the doubled increase in realization, which indicates that the paper industry boom cycle in 2009 is more obvious. The industry's economic recovery has been reflected in the relevant A-share listed companies. The relevant disclosed data in the third quarter of last year showed that some companies' performance rebounded strongly. For example, the data shows: Chenming Paper (000488.SZ net profit in the third quarter is as high as 3.04) 100 million yuan, a 103% increase from the previous month! Strong earnings recovery is more obvious; in the 2009 performance forecast, the silver pigeon investment (600069) announcement is expected to show that the net profit for January-December 2009 is expected to increase by 50% over the same period of the previous year - 70%; Huatai (600308) expects net profit for 2009 to increase by 200%-250%; Minfeng Special Paper, Shanying Paper and other net profit forecasts for 2009 show an increase of more than 600%, etc. The overall growth trend of the industry has been established, which provides a better industry background support for selecting companies and investing in market fluctuations.
Mining potential varieties with valuation advantages and growth characteristics
For the papermaking sector, we believe that its strategy should focus on two aspects, one is the valuation advantage. At present, from the papermaking sector, the valuation of some varieties is relatively high, such as ST Tianhong, Guanhao Gaoxin, etc. Dynamic PE is more than 200 times. From the perspective of industry scale and growth, it does not have a good margin of safety or imagination. Therefore, similar varieties should be considered for temporary abandonment, and from the perspective of valuation advantages, the current sun Paper, Minfeng Special Paper, Chenming Paper, Huatai Shares, etc. all have good valuation advantages, especially those with large expected growth in performance, which is more conducive to the decline of dynamic PE. Such companies are the focus of mining; The second is the growth potential company. For such companies, we believe that companies with sufficient cash flow and more profitable expectations in project transfer or future industry development are the first, such as the silver pigeon investment in the competitive position of the Central Plains, which not only realizes additional issuance, but also has sufficient cash flow. At the same time, the company has formed a complementary trend of four major paper types, namely, cultural paper, wrapping paper, household paper and specialty paper, and is expected to fully enjoy the growth of industry support policies and market segments. At present, the research finds that while the cultural paper brand market is consolidating, its recent launch of a relatively high gross margin living paper project will result in a more coordinated development of the varieties, while its packaging paper shows that the growth of the industry is very obvious, for example, according to China. According to the statistics of the Packaging Federation, the total output value of China's packaging industry increased from 280.6 billion in 2003 to 730 billion in 2008, an average annual increase of 21%. It is expected that a more substantial growth in 2009-10 will be confirmed. According to the study, under the positioning of the above two important selection criteria, investors' institutional positions and market environment, consumption upgrades, and market volatility trends are all factors to be considered, and the valuation is selected from the paper industry with obvious growth trend. Companies with better growth opportunities have better support factors in their investment strategies.
Overall, the study believes that the paper industry sector with a clear economic cycle is entering the “regular structure and promoting consumption†economy. As the needs of people's lives and industry enterprises increase, the policy environment and market environment for development are more favorable. And choosing a company with certain valuation advantages, growth space and better performance improvement expectations, based on market timing, sector capital trends, and main positions, should be a better strategic choice.
Industry growth recovery growth trend is obvious
Judging from the current development of the paper industry, it has clearly shown a good growth trend. According to China Paper Network, in 2009, China's paper industry continued to create impressive results. The annual output of paper and paperboard increased by 12% from 2008 to 93.89 million tons. The China Paper Index also rose along with the recovery of the domestic paper industry, rising from 100 points on January 5, 2009 to 253.91 points on December 31. At present, the region is stable at 260 points. The index has started to rise from 100 at the beginning of the year [the doubled increase in realization, which indicates that the paper industry boom cycle in 2009 is more obvious. The industry's economic recovery has been reflected in the relevant A-share listed companies. The relevant disclosed data in the third quarter of last year showed that some companies' performance rebounded strongly. For example, the data shows: Chenming Paper (000488.SZ net profit in the third quarter is as high as 3.04) 100 million yuan, a 103% increase from the previous month! Strong earnings recovery is more obvious; in the 2009 performance forecast, the silver pigeon investment (600069) announcement is expected to show that the net profit for January-December 2009 is expected to increase by 50% over the same period of the previous year - 70%; Huatai (600308) expects net profit for 2009 to increase by 200%-250%; Minfeng Special Paper, Shanying Paper and other net profit forecasts for 2009 show an increase of more than 600%, etc. The overall growth trend of the industry has been established, which provides a better industry background support for selecting companies and investing in market fluctuations.
Mining potential varieties with valuation advantages and growth characteristics
For the papermaking sector, we believe that its strategy should focus on two aspects, one is the valuation advantage. At present, from the papermaking sector, the valuation of some varieties is relatively high, such as ST Tianhong, Guanhao Gaoxin, etc. Dynamic PE is more than 200 times. From the perspective of industry scale and growth, it does not have a good margin of safety or imagination. Therefore, similar varieties should be considered for temporary abandonment, and from the perspective of valuation advantages, the current sun Paper, Minfeng Special Paper, Chenming Paper, Huatai Shares, etc. all have good valuation advantages, especially those with large expected growth in performance, which is more conducive to the decline of dynamic PE. Such companies are the focus of mining; The second is the growth potential company. For such companies, we believe that companies with sufficient cash flow and more profitable expectations in project transfer or future industry development are the first, such as the silver pigeon investment in the competitive position of the Central Plains, which not only realizes additional issuance, but also has sufficient cash flow. At the same time, the company has formed a complementary trend of four major paper types, namely, cultural paper, wrapping paper, household paper and specialty paper, and is expected to fully enjoy the growth of industry support policies and market segments. At present, the research finds that while the cultural paper brand market is consolidating, its recent launch of a relatively high gross margin living paper project will result in a more coordinated development of the varieties, while its packaging paper shows that the growth of the industry is very obvious, for example, according to China. According to the statistics of the Packaging Federation, the total output value of China's packaging industry increased from 280.6 billion in 2003 to 730 billion in 2008, an average annual increase of 21%. It is expected that a more substantial growth in 2009-10 will be confirmed. According to the study, under the positioning of the above two important selection criteria, investors' institutional positions and market environment, consumption upgrades, and market volatility trends are all factors to be considered, and the valuation is selected from the paper industry with obvious growth trend. Companies with better growth opportunities have better support factors in their investment strategies.
Overall, the study believes that the paper industry sector with a clear economic cycle is entering the “regular structure and promoting consumption†economy. As the needs of people's lives and industry enterprises increase, the policy environment and market environment for development are more favorable. And choosing a company with certain valuation advantages, growth space and better performance improvement expectations, based on market timing, sector capital trends, and main positions, should be a better strategic choice.
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